+12.5%
return on $1 per pick
111 picks resolved66 still opensince 17 July 2026
Picks won
64 / 111
57.7% hit rate
Market said
51.4%
avg implied odds
Still open
66
awaiting resolution
Same $1-per-pick ROI, split by claimed edge size. Core is the band our resolved history actually supports.
Core edge
≤12pp claimed edge
+11.5%
58 / 101 won57.4% hit rate
+5.4pp avg claimed edge
High edge
>12pp claimed edge
+22.5%
6 / 10 won60.0% hit rate
+18.7pp avg claimed edge
What the market priced, versus what actually happened.
Actual hit rate beat implied odds in 2 of 3 price ranges.
Longshots - under 35¢n=13
24.7%38.5%
Toss-ups - 35-55¢n=48
44.5%41.7%
Favourites - 55-75¢n=46
63.9%80.4%
Every published Daily Edge pick that has resolved, wins and losses. Each market is counted once.
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?: August 31
No61¢+3.5ppcore13 Aug 2026
Lost
FL-22 Republican Primary Winner: Michael Carbonara
Yes47¢+3.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Lost
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner: Austin Rogers
Yes51¢+4.0ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
NVIDIA H200 · Hourly price on Aug 14 (Week 33): Above $4.50
Want today's edges and the analyzer? Get started
No55¢+4.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Lost
CPI core in July: Above 0.1%
Yes64¢+7.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY): Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?
Yes47¢+15.5pphigh12 Aug 2026
Won
NVIDIA RTX 5090 · Hourly price on Aug 14 (Week 33): Above $0.50
Yes39¢+16.5pphigh12 Aug 2026
Lost
Will CAVA Group Inc. report above 476 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?
Yes49¢+5.5ppcore11 Aug 2026
Lost
Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.8%?
Yes70¢+20.5pphigh11 Aug 2026
Won
US gasoline CPI for July: Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 330ㅤ?
Yes69¢+4.0ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
Yes69¢+4.0ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
July Inflation US - Monthly: ≥0.1%
No38¢+4.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Lost
Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner: Bola Oyebamiji
Yes45¢+4.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Lost
Hims subscribers in Q2: Will Hims & Hers Health Inc. report above 2.64 million subscribers in Q2 2026?
Yes51¢+5.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Moscow air traffic suspended by...?: August 31
Yes27¢+6.2ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place: Jay Collins
Yes64¢+3.0ppcore9 Aug 2026
Won
Core CPI YoY - July 2026: 2.5%
Yes49¢+3.5ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second Place: Ralph Norman
Yes57¢+3.5ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
FL-19 Republican Primary Winner: Catalina Lauf
No66¢+6.0ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
CPI-U index in July: Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.0 ?
No70¢+7.0ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
US gasoline CPI for July: Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 332ㅤ?
No67¢+3.0ppcore7 Aug 2026
Lost
Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Angie Craig
No70¢+3.5ppcore7 Aug 2026
Won
Who will drop out of their election?: Max Miller (before 8/11)
No66¢+6.5ppcore7 Aug 2026
Won
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner: Darline Graham Nordone
No35¢+6.5ppcore7 Aug 2026
Lost
FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner: Bernard Taylor
No51¢+3.0ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
July Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%
Yes45¢+3.5ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner: Keith Gross
No43¢+5.0ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
Hims subscribers in Q2: Will Hims & Hers Health Inc. report above 2.62 million subscribers in Q2 2026?
Yes53¢+5.5ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
Trump's approval rating on Aug 7, 2026?: Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics?
Yes40¢+7.5ppcore6 Aug 2026
Lost
Core CPI MoM - July 2026: 0.2%
No45¢+8.7ppcore6 Aug 2026
Lost
When will the Senate leave for August recess?: Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 8, 2026?
No65¢+15.5pphigh6 Aug 2026
Won
Core CPI YoY - July 2026: 2.4%
No73¢+3.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Won
Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?: Before Aug 8, 2026
No64¢+3.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Won
UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.2–0.3%
Yes44¢+4.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Lost
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place: James Fishback
Yes38¢+4.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Lost
Sweetgreen profit margin in Q2: Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?
No47¢+6.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Won
eBay gross merchandise volume in Q2: Will eBay Inc. report Above $22 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?
No51¢+9.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Lost
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY): Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?
Yes39¢+3.5ppcore4 Aug 2026
Lost
July Inflation China - Annual: 0.7% - 0.8%
No71¢+23.5pphigh4 Aug 2026
Won
Who will drop out of their election?: Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 5, 2026?
No74¢+3.5ppcore3 Aug 2026
Won
Spotify monthly active users in Q2: Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 780 million monthly active users in Q2 2026?
No56¢+4.0ppcore3 Aug 2026
Won
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY): Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in July 2026?
Yes40¢+5.5ppcore3 Aug 2026
Lost
S&P price on Aug 3, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 7,530 or above
Yes56¢+6.0ppcore3 Aug 2026
Won
July Inflation US - Annual: 3.5%
No79¢+4.5ppcore2 Aug 2026
Won
Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q2: Will Shopify Inc. report Above $116 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?
No52¢+4.5ppcore1 Aug 2026
Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: August 9
No34¢+6.5ppcore1 Aug 2026
Lost
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner: Lisa Demuth
No69¢+3.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Lost
Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: 0.0%–0.8%
No60¢+3.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Cori Bush
No64¢+3.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Sep 1, 2026?
No65¢+5.0ppcore31 Jul 2026
Lost
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?: Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis meet before Aug 1, 2026?
No68¢+5.0ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner: Haley Stevens
Yes51¢+6.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
Clear+ members in Q2: Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.4 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026?
Yes39¢+8.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Lost
Elon Musk net worth on July 31 (Bloomberg): Will Elon Musk's net worth for July be above $700 billion?
No32¢+13.0pphigh31 Jul 2026
Won
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?: Above 2.0%
No66¢+4.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 31
Yes36¢+4.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Lost
Sweetgreen profit margin in Q2: Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 16% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?
No65¢+6.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q2: Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 870 thousand passengers carried in Q2 2026?
Yes57¢+7.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner: BN
Yes68¢+8.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
Roblox hours engaged in Q2: Will Roblox Corporation report Above 32 billion hours engaged in Q2 2026?
No61¢+11.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of July: $1.5T-$2.0T
No53¢+3.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme price in July 2026: Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.69?
No63¢+3.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Wesley Bell
Yes56¢+3.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents: Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
Yes60¢+3.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
Trump's approval rating on Jul 31, 2026?: 40.5 to 40.7
No62¢+4.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?: 0
No77¢+5.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
FL-09 Republican Primary Winner: Thomas Chalifoux
Yes44¢+6.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 30
Yes21¢+6.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026?
No60¢+6.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
NVIDIA H200 · Hourly price on Jul 31 (Week 31): Above $5.00
No53¢+7.0ppcore29 Jul 2026
Lost
How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?: Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in June 2026?
Yes67¢+23.0pphigh29 Jul 2026
Lost
Fear & Greed Index on July 31st: What will the Fear & Greed Index be on Jul 31, 2026?
Yes63¢+4.0ppcore28 Jul 2026
Won
When will Todd Blanche be confirmed?: Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?
No40¢+4.5ppcore27 Jul 2026
Lost
Robinhood funded customers in Q2: Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 28 million funded customers in Q2 2026?
Yes47¢+6.5ppcore27 Jul 2026
Won
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?: September 30
No53¢+4.5ppcore26 Jul 2026
Lost
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner: PH
Yes47¢+5.5ppcore26 Jul 2026
Lost
Starbucks total stores in Q3: Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41300 total global stores in Q3 2026?
Yes56¢+5.5ppcore26 Jul 2026
Won
July Inflation US - Annual: 3.3%
No63¢+4.5ppcore25 Jul 2026
Won
Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, 2026: At least 200,000
Yes66¢+14.5pphigh23 Jul 2026
Lost
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?: Before July 24th
No31¢+6.5ppcore23 Jul 2026
Won
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 26
Yes52¢+3.5ppcore23 Jul 2026
Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?: July 31
Yes54¢+6.5ppcore23 Jul 2026
Won
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 29
Yes36¢+4.5ppcore22 Jul 2026
Lost
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner: Mike Lindell
Yes42¢+3.5ppcore21 Jul 2026
Lost
Oleksandr Syrskyi out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by...?: July 31
No41¢+8.4ppcore20 Jul 2026
Lost
Nasdaq-100 price on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 28,720 or above
No47¢+6.0ppcore20 Jul 2026
Won
S&P price on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 7,480 or above
No39¢+14.0pphigh20 Jul 2026
Won
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down: Will the S&P 500 be above 7457.69 on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
Yes43¢+4.0ppcore19 Jul 2026
Lost
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Haley Stevens
Yes37¢+6.5ppcore19 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 22
No42¢+6.5ppcore19 Jul 2026
Won
When will the House pass a budget resolution?: Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026?
Yes47¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?: July 31
No61¢+7.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: William Lawrence
No49¢+6.0ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?: World Cup
No41¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by...?: July 31
Yes37¢+3.0ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?: Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Yes75¢+3.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
US gas prices this week: Above 4.020
Yes35¢+10.0ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
US gas prices tomorrow?: Above 3.995
Yes61¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?: Election
Yes59¢+30.5pphigh18 Jul 2026
Lost
#2 US Netflix Show this week?: Little House on the Prairie: Season 1
No75¢+5.0ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
Top US Netflix Show this week?: Little House on the Prairie: Season 1
No16¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Abdul El-Sayed
No35¢+8.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 19
No28¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 24
No67¢+6.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Won
When will Trump and Netanyahu meet?: Will Donald Trump meet in person Benjamin Netanyahu before Jul 21, 2026?
Yes5¢+3.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 23
No61¢+6.0ppcore17 Jul 2026
Won
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?: 3.5–3.9%
No28¢+6.8ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (7/13-7/19): Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 6 between Jul 13, 2026 and Jul 19, 2026?
No26¢+6.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost
What will Trump say in July?: Will Trump say "Palestine / Palestinian" before Aug 1, 2026?
Yes43¢+11.0ppcore17 Jul 2026
Won
What will Trump say in July?: Will Trump say "Discombobulator / Discombobulate / Discombobulated" before Aug 1, 2026?
No84¢+3.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes: Bev Craig
No7¢+4.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost