+5.2%
return on $1 per pick
259 picks resolved65 still opensince 17 July 2026
Picks won
142 / 259
54.8% hit rate
Market said
50.5%
avg implied odds
Still open
65
awaiting resolution
Same $1-per-pick ROI, split by claimed edge size. Core is the band our resolved history actually supports.
Core edge
≤12pp claimed edge
+2.2%
129 / 240 won53.8% hit rate
+5.7pp avg claimed edge
High edge
>12pp claimed edge
+43.0%
13 / 19 won68.4% hit rate
+18.4pp avg claimed edge
What the market priced, versus what actually happened.
Actual hit rate beat implied odds in every price range shown.
Longshots - under 35¢n=38
24.6%26.3%
Toss-ups - 35-55¢n=110
44.3%44.5%
Favourites - 55-75¢n=98
63.3%73.5%
Every published Daily Edge pick that has resolved, wins and losses. Each market is counted once.
China vs Tajikistan: China wins
Yes52¢+3.5ppcore6 Oct 2026
Lost
Nasdaq-100 price on Oct 5, 2026 at 10am EDT?: 30,800 or above
Yes31¢+21.0pphigh5 Oct 2026
Won
Spain snap election called by...?: October 31
Yes51¢+5.5ppcore4 Oct 2026
Won
Ireland vs Israel: Israel wins
No73¢+7.5ppcore4 Oct 2026
Want today's edges and the analyzer? Get started
Heavy favourites - 75¢+n=13
82.1%84.6%
Won
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?: October 31
Yes72¢+8.5ppcore4 Oct 2026
Won
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins: Flavio Bolsonaro
Yes39¢+5.5ppcore3 Oct 2026
Won
Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?
No41¢+6.0ppcore3 Oct 2026
Won
Pernambuco Governor Election Winner: João Campos
No45¢+8.0ppcore3 Oct 2026
Won
Next Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?: Darijana Filipović
Yes56¢+3.5ppcore2 Oct 2026
Won
China PR vs Palestine: China PR wins
Yes38¢+6.5ppcore2 Oct 2026
Lost
Nasdaq-100 price range on Oct 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 30,600 to 30,699.99
No75¢+7.0ppcore2 Oct 2026
Won
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?: 2-4%
No52¢+11.0ppcore2 Oct 2026
Lost
Pernambuco Governor Election Winner: Raquel Lyra
Yes35¢+24.5pphigh2 Oct 2026
Won
Next Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?: Slaven Kovačević
Yes37¢+4.0ppcore1 Oct 2026
Lost
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva <5%
No43¢+8.5ppcore1 Oct 2026
Won
Dunkin' medium cold brew price in September: Will the average U.S. price of a Dunkin' medium cold brew for September 2026 be at least $4.45?
No50¢+10.5ppcore1 Oct 2026
Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?: 26-29
Yes41¢+3.5ppcore13 Sept 2026
Won
Berlin State Elections: AfD # of seats?: 35+
Yes36¢+3.7ppcore13 Sept 2026
Lost
Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner: PL
Yes56¢+4.0ppcore13 Sept 2026
Won
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?: September 30
No69¢+6.0ppcore13 Sept 2026
Won
Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner: Luciano Zucco
No41¢+6.5ppcore13 Sept 2026
Lost
September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents: Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0
Yes62¢+6.5ppcore13 Sept 2026
Lost
When will the House leave for its pre-election recess?: Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. House of Representatives adjourns from substantive floor business for its pre-election 2026 recess before Sep 18, 2026?
Yes69¢+7.0ppcore13 Sept 2026
Won
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: AfD # of seats?: 28-31
No46¢+8.5ppcore13 Sept 2026
Won
When will Oura officially announce an IPO?: Before Oct 1, 2026
Yes63¢+9.5ppcore13 Sept 2026
Lost
Kansas wheat production in 2026: Will Kansas’s winter wheat production for 2026 be above 190 million bushels?
No45¢+9.5ppcore13 Sept 2026
Lost
When will Trump’s next Press Secretary be announced?: Will Donald Trump issue any announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming the next White House Press Secretary (including acting/interim) before Oct 1, 2026?
Yes27¢+10.0ppcore13 Sept 2026
Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?: 22-25
Yes35¢+3.5ppcore12 Sept 2026
Lost
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Pause
Yes20¢+4.5ppcore12 Sept 2026
Lost
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?: September 30
No87¢+4.5ppcore12 Sept 2026
Won
NVIDIA A100 · Average hourly price in September: Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.00 in September 2026?
Yes59¢+5.0ppcore12 Sept 2026
Lost
Israel military action against Beirut by...?: September 30
Yes13¢+6.0ppcore12 Sept 2026
Lost
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?: September 15
Yes84¢+7.0ppcore12 Sept 2026
Won
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?: September 15
Yes49¢+8.5ppcore12 Sept 2026
Won
How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?: 0
No72¢+8.5ppcore12 Sept 2026
Lost
Will Nashville airport be renamed for Dolly Parton?: Will it be reported by Metropolitan Nashville Airport Authority that the MNAA Board has formally approved renaming Nashville International Airport for Dolly Parton before Oct 1, 2026?
Yes34¢+9.5ppcore12 Sept 2026
Won
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?: September 30
No66¢+14.5pphigh12 Sept 2026
Won
US shelter CPI in August: Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for August 2026 be above 429.7?
No50¢+3.5ppcore11 Sept 2026
Lost
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Augusto Cury
Yes53¢+4.5ppcore11 Sept 2026
Won
How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?: 3
Yes33¢+4.5ppcore11 Sept 2026
Lost
Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?: September 30
No66¢+5.0ppcore11 Sept 2026
Won
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?: September 30
Yes89¢+6.0ppcore11 Sept 2026
Won
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?: September 30
No57¢+6.0ppcore11 Sept 2026
Lost
Berlin State Election: Linke Vote Share?: 23%+
No66¢+6.5ppcore11 Sept 2026
Lost
CPI-U index in August: Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for August 2026 be above 334.750?
Yes69¢+7.5ppcore11 Sept 2026
Won
September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents: Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
Yes39¢+7.5ppcore11 Sept 2026
Lost
Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 11, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,230 or above
No38¢+12.0ppcore11 Sept 2026
Lost
Bank of Russia rate decision in September: Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the September Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?
No25¢+3.0ppcore10 Sept 2026
Lost
CPI-U index in August: Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for August 2026 be above 334.800?
Yes65¢+4.0ppcore10 Sept 2026
Won
Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 29,470 or above
Yes38¢+4.0ppcore10 Sept 2026
Lost
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?: September 15
Yes10¢+4.0ppcore10 Sept 2026
Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?: 31%+
No33¢+6.0ppcore10 Sept 2026
Lost
Will Donald Trump issue a public apology?: Will Donald Trump apologize for any of his own statements, actions, or conduct before Oct 1, 2026?
No65¢+13.5pphigh10 Sept 2026
Lost
Fear & Greed Index on Sep 11, 2026?: Fear
Yes55¢+3.5ppcore9 Sept 2026
Won
Will Trump try to fire Lisa Cook again?: Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Oct 1, 2026?
Yes65¢+5.5ppcore9 Sept 2026
Lost
August Inflation US - Annual: 3.3%
Yes32¢+5.5ppcore9 Sept 2026
Lost
2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner: UBJP
Yes35¢+6.0ppcore9 Sept 2026
Lost
Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?: 27-30%
No54¢+6.5ppcore9 Sept 2026
Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?: <8%
No56¢+6.5ppcore9 Sept 2026
Lost
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by...?: September 30
No36¢+6.5ppcore9 Sept 2026
Lost
US gasoline CPI for August: Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for August 2026 be above 346?
Yes47¢+6.5ppcore9 Sept 2026
Lost
Core CPI YoY - August 2026: 2.4%
Yes47¢+7.0ppcore9 Sept 2026
Won
Bank of Russia decision in September?: Decrease
Yes28¢+7.5ppcore9 Sept 2026
Lost
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?: September 30
No89¢+4.1ppcore8 Sept 2026
Won
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in September: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Hike 1-25bps at the September Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Yes57¢+4.5ppcore8 Sept 2026
Won
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?: September 15
Yes56¢+15.5pphigh8 Sept 2026
Won
Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?: 20%+
No60¢+18.5pphigh8 Sept 2026
Won
Which of these parties will win a Riksdag seat?: Will it be reported by Valmyndigheten, the Swedish Election Authority that the Liberals win at least one seat in the Riksdag in the 2026 Swedish general election before Sep 25, 2026?
No50¢+3.0ppcore7 Sept 2026
Lost
When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?: Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 Pro before Sep 21, 2026?
Yes91¢+4.5ppcore7 Sept 2026
Won
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?: September 30
No78¢+5.0ppcore7 Sept 2026
Won
How many launches will SpaceX have in September?: Above 10
Yes34¢+10.0ppcore7 Sept 2026
Lost
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: September 30
No76¢+4.0ppcore6 Sept 2026
Won
Ceará Governor Election Winner: Ciro Gomes
No36¢+4.5ppcore6 Sept 2026
Won
Bank of Russia decision in September?: No Change
Yes64¢+4.5ppcore6 Sept 2026
Won
Moscow air traffic suspended by...?: September 15
Yes35¢+5.0ppcore6 Sept 2026
Lost
Bahia Governor Election Winner: ACM Neto
Yes46¢+5.0ppcore6 Sept 2026
Lost
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other
Yes50¢+7.0ppcore6 Sept 2026
Won
Will Iran target Qatar by...?: September 15
Yes17¢+8.0ppcore6 Sept 2026
Lost
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
No57¢+9.5ppcore6 Sept 2026
Lost
Poland rate decision in September: Will the Narodowy Bank Polski Hike 25bps at the September Monetary Policy Council meeting?
No63¢+10.0ppcore6 Sept 2026
Won
TSA avg check-ins from Aug 31 to Sep 6, 2026?: Above 2.3 million
Yes38¢+22.5pphigh6 Sept 2026
Lost
Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY): Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in August 2026?
Yes64¢+3.0ppcore5 Sept 2026
Won
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?: September 15
No60¢+7.5ppcore5 Sept 2026
Won
Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?: Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia before Oct 1, 2026?
Yes56¢+11.5ppcore5 Sept 2026
Won
Will Iran target Qatar by...?: September 30
Yes23¢+8.0ppcore4 Sept 2026
Lost
Will the FDA approve camizestrant for advanced breast cancer?: Will the FDA approve camizestrant for HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer with ESR1 mutation before Oct 1, 2026?
No64¢+3.0ppcore3 Sept 2026
Lost
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory: Lula da Silva 5-10%
No59¢+4.0ppcore3 Sept 2026
Won
Bahia Governor Election Winner: Jerônimo Rodrigues
No49¢+4.5ppcore3 Sept 2026
Lost
Ceará Governor Election Winner: Elmano de Freitas
Yes36¢+6.5ppcore3 Sept 2026
Won
Abercrombie & Fitch Monthly Credit Card Spend in August: Will Abercrombie & Fitch Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 94 ?
Yes64¢+8.5ppcore3 Sept 2026
Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by...?: September 30
Yes54¢+16.5pphigh3 Sept 2026
Won
Lula participates in debate before first round?
No64¢+4.5ppcore2 Sept 2026
Won
NVIDIA H200 · Hourly price on Sep 04 (Week 36): Above $3.50
Yes50¢+6.0ppcore2 Sept 2026
Won
Will Iran target Oman by...?: September 30
Yes20¢+7.0ppcore2 Sept 2026
Lost
NVIDIA A100 · Hourly price on Sep 04 (Week 36): Above $1.00
No59¢+4.0ppcore1 Sept 2026
Lost
August Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%
No54¢+4.5ppcore1 Sept 2026
Lost
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in September: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the September Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Yes60¢+4.5ppcore1 Sept 2026
Lost
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?: September 30
Yes13¢+7.0ppcore1 Sept 2026
Lost
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?: 5-7%
No44¢+7.5ppcore1 Sept 2026
Won
Bank of Israel rate decision in August: Will the Bank of Israel Cut more than 25bps at the August Monetary Committee meeting?
No51¢+16.0pphigh1 Sept 2026
Won
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?: August 31
No61¢+3.5ppcore13 Aug 2026
Lost
Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.3%–0.5%
No48¢+6.5ppcore13 Aug 2026
Lost
Will Russia capture Toretske by...?: September 30
Yes37¢+3.0ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
FL-22 Republican Primary Winner: Michael Carbonara
Yes47¢+3.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Lost
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?: August 31
No74¢+3.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner: Austin Rogers
Yes51¢+4.0ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?: 325–339
No65¢+4.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
NVIDIA H200 · Hourly price on Aug 14 (Week 33): Above $4.50
No55¢+4.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Lost
How many launches will SpaceX have in August?: Above 13
Yes53¢+5.0ppcore12 Aug 2026
Lost
Berlin State Election Winner: Linke
Yes44¢+5.0ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
Bank of Japan rate decision in September: Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
No39¢+6.0ppcore12 Aug 2026
Lost
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Yes40¢+7.0ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
CPI core in July: Above 0.1%
Yes64¢+7.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?: Fishback <10%
Yes35¢+7.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Lost
When will FISA be reauthorized again?: Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before Oct 1, 2026?
No65¢+8.5ppcore12 Aug 2026
Won
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY): Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?
Yes47¢+15.5pphigh12 Aug 2026
Won
NVIDIA RTX 5090 · Hourly price on Aug 14 (Week 33): Above $0.50
Yes39¢+16.5pphigh12 Aug 2026
Lost
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
No55¢+4.5ppcore11 Aug 2026
Lost
Bank of Israel Decision in September?: No Change
No23¢+5.5ppcore11 Aug 2026
Won
Will CAVA Group Inc. report above 476 cava restaurants in Q2 2026?
Yes49¢+5.5ppcore11 Aug 2026
Lost
Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?: September 30
No68¢+7.5ppcore11 Aug 2026
Won
Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.8%?
Yes70¢+20.5pphigh11 Aug 2026
Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by...?: August 31
Yes35¢+3.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
US gasoline CPI for July: Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 330ㅤ?
Yes69¢+4.0ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
Yes69¢+4.0ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?: Will Lisa Demuth be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?
No38¢+4.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Lost
July Inflation US - Monthly: ≥0.1%
No38¢+4.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Lost
Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner: Bola Oyebamiji
Yes45¢+4.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Lost
Bank of Japan Decision in September?: 25 bps increase
Yes43¢+4.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner: AS
Yes57¢+4.9ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Hims subscribers in Q2: Will Hims & Hers Health Inc. report above 2.64 million subscribers in Q2 2026?
Yes51¢+5.5ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
FL-19 Republican nominee?: Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
No64¢+6.0ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Moscow air traffic suspended by...?: August 31
Yes27¢+6.2ppcore10 Aug 2026
Won
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place: Jay Collins
Yes64¢+3.0ppcore9 Aug 2026
Won
Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q3?: Will Bloom Energy be added to the S&P 500 in Q3 2026?
Yes44¢+4.5ppcore9 Aug 2026
Won
Core PCE MoM - July 2026: 0.3%
No63¢+4.5ppcore9 Aug 2026
Won
Will new tariffs become law?: Will any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs become law before Nov 1, 2026?
Yes45¢+5.5ppcore9 Aug 2026
Won
Jeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?: Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026?
Yes20¢+6.5ppcore9 Aug 2026
Lost
FL-19 Republican nominee?: Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
No59¢+3.5ppcore8 Aug 2026
Lost
Core CPI YoY - July 2026: 2.5%
Yes49¢+3.5ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second Place: Ralph Norman
Yes57¢+3.5ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
Bank of Japan Decision in September?: No change
Yes59¢+3.5ppcore8 Aug 2026
Lost
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?: Jared Kushner
Yes36¢+4.5ppcore8 Aug 2026
Lost
FL-19 Republican Primary Winner: Catalina Lauf
No66¢+6.0ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
CPI-U index in July: Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.0 ?
No70¢+7.0ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by...?: August 30?
No64¢+11.5ppcore8 Aug 2026
Won
US gasoline CPI for July: Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 332ㅤ?
No67¢+3.0ppcore7 Aug 2026
Lost
Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Angie Craig
No70¢+3.5ppcore7 Aug 2026
Won
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?: August 31
Yes6¢+5.8ppcore7 Aug 2026
Lost
Who will drop out of their election?: Max Miller (before 8/11)
No66¢+6.5ppcore7 Aug 2026
Won
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner: Darline Graham Nordone
No35¢+6.5ppcore7 Aug 2026
Lost
FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner: Bernard Taylor
No51¢+3.0ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
July Inflation US - Annual: 3.4%
Yes45¢+3.5ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
Another NATO article 4 by...?: August 31
Yes7¢+4.0ppcore6 Aug 2026
Lost
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?: No Change
Yes69¢+4.5ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner: Keith Gross
No43¢+5.0ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
Hims subscribers in Q2: Will Hims & Hers Health Inc. report above 2.62 million subscribers in Q2 2026?
Yes53¢+5.5ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
Trump's approval rating on Aug 7, 2026?: Will the President's approval rating be below 39.2 according to RealClearPolitics?
Yes40¢+7.5ppcore6 Aug 2026
Lost
Core CPI MoM - July 2026: 0.2%
No45¢+8.7ppcore6 Aug 2026
Lost
Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?: Will Megan Degenfelder be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?
No67¢+11.0ppcore6 Aug 2026
Won
When will the Senate leave for August recess?: Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 8, 2026?
No65¢+15.5pphigh6 Aug 2026
Won
Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner: Katharina Pötter
Yes52¢+3.0ppcore5 Aug 2026
Won
Core CPI YoY - July 2026: 2.4%
No73¢+3.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Won
Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?: Before Aug 8, 2026
No64¢+3.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Won
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner: Darline Graham Nordone
No40¢+4.3ppcore5 Aug 2026
Lost
UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?: 0.2–0.3%
Yes44¢+4.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Lost
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second Place: James Fishback
Yes38¢+4.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Lost
Sweetgreen profit margin in Q2: Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?
No47¢+6.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Won
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?: Steve Witkoff
Yes42¢+8.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Lost
eBay gross merchandise volume in Q2: Will eBay Inc. report Above $22 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?
No51¢+9.5ppcore5 Aug 2026
Lost
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY): Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?
Yes39¢+3.5ppcore4 Aug 2026
Lost
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?: No Meeting by September 30
No64¢+3.8ppcore4 Aug 2026
Won
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory: Hong 30%+
Yes46¢+6.0ppcore4 Aug 2026
Lost
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2): Above 70
Yes48¢+7.0ppcore4 Aug 2026
Lost
July Inflation China - Annual: 0.7% - 0.8%
No71¢+23.5pphigh4 Aug 2026
Won
Who will drop out of their election?: Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 5, 2026?
No74¢+3.5ppcore3 Aug 2026
Won
Spotify monthly active users in Q2: Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 780 million monthly active users in Q2 2026?
No56¢+4.0ppcore3 Aug 2026
Won
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY): Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in July 2026?
Yes40¢+5.5ppcore3 Aug 2026
Lost
S&P price on Aug 3, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 7,530 or above
Yes56¢+6.0ppcore3 Aug 2026
Won
July Inflation US - Annual: 3.5%
No79¢+4.5ppcore2 Aug 2026
Won
When will Todd Blanche be confirmed?: Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Oct 1, 2026?
No63¢+4.5ppcore2 Aug 2026
Lost
Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q2: Will Shopify Inc. report Above $116 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?
No52¢+4.5ppcore1 Aug 2026
Won
Israel military action against Beirut by...?: August 31
Yes28¢+5.5ppcore1 Aug 2026
Lost
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Oct 1, 2026?
No42¢+6.5ppcore1 Aug 2026
Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: August 9
No34¢+6.5ppcore1 Aug 2026
Lost
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner: Lisa Demuth
No69¢+3.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Lost
Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?: 0.0%–0.8%
No60¢+3.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Cori Bush
No64¢+3.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner: Ralph Norman
No62¢+4.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Sep 1, 2026?
No65¢+5.0ppcore31 Jul 2026
Lost
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?: Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis meet before Aug 1, 2026?
No68¢+5.0ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner: Haley Stevens
Yes51¢+6.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?: September 30
No54¢+8.0ppcore31 Jul 2026
Won
Clear+ members in Q2: Will Clear Secure Inc. report Above 8.4 million active clear plus members in Q2 2026?
Yes39¢+8.5ppcore31 Jul 2026
Lost
Elon Musk net worth on July 31 (Bloomberg): Will Elon Musk's net worth for July be above $700 billion?
No32¢+13.0pphigh31 Jul 2026
Won
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?: Decrease
Yes37¢+3.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Lost
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?: Above 2.0%
No66¢+4.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 31
Yes36¢+4.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Lost
Will Russia enter Stinky by...?: September 30
Yes49¢+5.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
Sweetgreen profit margin in Q2: Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 16% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?
No65¢+6.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26): Above 60
No42¢+6.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q2: Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 870 thousand passengers carried in Q2 2026?
Yes57¢+7.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner: BN
Yes68¢+8.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
Roblox hours engaged in Q2: Will Roblox Corporation report Above 32 billion hours engaged in Q2 2026?
No61¢+11.5ppcore30 Jul 2026
Won
SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of July: $1.5T-$2.0T
No53¢+3.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme price in July 2026: Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.69?
No63¢+3.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Wesley Bell
Yes56¢+3.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents: Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
Yes60¢+3.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?: September 30
No63¢+4.0ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
Trump's approval rating on Jul 31, 2026?: 40.5 to 40.7
No62¢+4.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?: 0
No77¢+5.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
FL-09 Republican Primary Winner: Thomas Chalifoux
Yes44¢+6.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 30
Yes21¢+6.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
Will Todd Blanche’s AG nomination advance from committee?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026?
No60¢+6.5ppcore29 Jul 2026
Won
NVIDIA H200 · Hourly price on Jul 31 (Week 31): Above $5.00
No53¢+7.0ppcore29 Jul 2026
Lost
How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?: Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in June 2026?
Yes67¢+23.0pphigh29 Jul 2026
Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?: September 30
No86¢+3.0ppcore28 Jul 2026
Won
Fear & Greed Index on July 31st: What will the Fear & Greed Index be on Jul 31, 2026?
Yes63¢+4.0ppcore28 Jul 2026
Won
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: Renan Santos
No41¢+7.0ppcore28 Jul 2026
Won
When will Todd Blanche be confirmed?: Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?
No40¢+4.5ppcore27 Jul 2026
Lost
Robinhood funded customers in Q2: Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 28 million funded customers in Q2 2026?
Yes47¢+6.5ppcore27 Jul 2026
Won
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?: September 30
No53¢+4.5ppcore26 Jul 2026
Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
No61¢+4.5ppcore26 Jul 2026
Won
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner: PH
Yes47¢+5.5ppcore26 Jul 2026
Lost
Starbucks total stores in Q3: Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41300 total global stores in Q3 2026?
Yes56¢+5.5ppcore26 Jul 2026
Won
July Inflation US - Annual: 3.3%
No63¢+4.5ppcore25 Jul 2026
Won
Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, 2026: At least 200,000
Yes66¢+14.5pphigh23 Jul 2026
Lost
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?: Before July 24th
No31¢+6.5ppcore23 Jul 2026
Won
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 26
Yes52¢+3.5ppcore23 Jul 2026
Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?: July 31
Yes54¢+6.5ppcore23 Jul 2026
Won
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 29
Yes36¢+4.5ppcore22 Jul 2026
Lost
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner: Mike Lindell
Yes42¢+3.5ppcore21 Jul 2026
Lost
Oleksandr Syrskyi out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by...?: July 31
No41¢+8.4ppcore20 Jul 2026
Lost
Nasdaq-100 price on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 28,720 or above
No47¢+6.0ppcore20 Jul 2026
Won
S&P price on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: 7,480 or above
No39¢+14.0pphigh20 Jul 2026
Won
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down: Will the S&P 500 be above 7457.69 on Jul 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
Yes43¢+4.0ppcore19 Jul 2026
Lost
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Haley Stevens
Yes37¢+6.5ppcore19 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 22
No42¢+6.5ppcore19 Jul 2026
Won
When will the House pass a budget resolution?: Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026?
Yes47¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?: July 31
No61¢+7.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: William Lawrence
No49¢+6.0ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?: World Cup
No41¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by...?: July 31
Yes37¢+3.0ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?: Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Yes75¢+3.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
US gas prices this week: Above 4.020
Yes35¢+10.0ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
US gas prices tomorrow?: Above 3.995
Yes61¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?: Election
Yes59¢+30.5pphigh18 Jul 2026
Lost
#2 US Netflix Show this week?: Little House on the Prairie: Season 1
No75¢+5.0ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
Top US Netflix Show this week?: Little House on the Prairie: Season 1
No16¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Won
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Abdul El-Sayed
No35¢+8.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 19
No28¢+6.5ppcore18 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 24
No67¢+6.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Won
When will Trump and Netanyahu meet?: Will Donald Trump meet in person Benjamin Netanyahu before Jul 21, 2026?
Yes5¢+3.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?: July 23
No61¢+6.0ppcore17 Jul 2026
Won
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?: 3.5–3.9%
No28¢+6.8ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost
How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (7/13-7/19): Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 6 between Jul 13, 2026 and Jul 19, 2026?
No26¢+6.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost
What will Trump say in July?: Will Trump say "Palestine / Palestinian" before Aug 1, 2026?
Yes43¢+11.0ppcore17 Jul 2026
Won
What will Trump say in July?: Will Trump say "Discombobulator / Discombobulate / Discombobulated" before Aug 1, 2026?
No84¢+3.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes: Bev Craig
No7¢+4.5ppcore17 Jul 2026
Lost