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Analysis
Market
New York Governor Election: Nassau County Winner: Bruce Blakeman (R)
Verdict
BET YES· buy under 62¢
Thesis
As Nassau's sitting County Executive who just won reelection there, Blakeman has a strong home-turf advantage that likely exceeds his statewide polling deficit against Hochul.
2 risk factors
- Moderate confidence range (17 pp)
- Multiple resolution-criteria ambiguities
Our estimate
62.0%
range 53.0% – 70.0%
Market
56¢
implied 55.5%
Gap is edge. Not a performance claim.
- Edge
- +6.5pp
- Expected value
- +12¢
- Reading
- Market underprices Yes relative to our range.
p − market
per $1
Stored analysis snapshot. Market prices can move after analysis.
How it works
Three steps from market link to a fully sourced verdict.
Submit a market
Paste a Polymarket or Kalshi market URL.
AI estimates true odds
Our model pulls fresh context, estimates probability with a confidence range, and cites real sources.
Get actionable insight
See your edge, expected value, Kelly bet size (liquidity-capped), exit levels, and resolution risks.
Simple pricing
- Fair-use market analyses
- Polymarket & Kalshi
- Kelly bet sizing with liquidity caps
- Resolution-risk breakdowns
- Cited sources on every verdict
- Confidence ranges, not false precision