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Analysis
Market
Will Democrats win control of the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm elections?
Verdict
BET YES· buy under 53¢
Thesis
The chamber starts near parity, so a modest national swing could move enough competitive districts to change control.
3 risk factors
- Confidence range spans 12 percentage points: moderate uncertainty
- District-level races can move independently of the national environment
- Recounts or delayed certifications could postpone final resolution
Our estimate
53.0%
range 47.0% – 59.0%
Market
47¢
implied 47.0%
Gap is edge. Not a performance claim.
- Edge
- +6.0pp
- Expected value
- +13¢
- Reading
- Market underprices Yes relative to our range.
p − market
per $1
Static sample. No qualifying current pick was available.
How it works
Three steps from market link to a fully sourced verdict.
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AI estimates true odds
Our model pulls fresh context, estimates probability with a confidence range, and cites real sources.
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Simple pricing
- Fair-use market analyses
- Polymarket & Kalshi
- Kelly bet sizing with liquidity caps
- Resolution-risk breakdowns
- Cited sources on every verdict
- Confidence ranges, not false precision